Peak to Peak Waitlist Odds

Peak to Peak is a charter school so the way to enroll is via a lottery — and they're rather cagey about what percentage of applicants get in, and I believe this is may be because Boulder Valley School District (BVSD) manages the enrollment process. Nowhere in the application process (nor their website) do they tell you anything like "your odds of getting into Peak to Peak in Lafayette for Kindergarten are x%."

(Although, I did overhear an administrator say it was "about a third" but this wasn't documented anywhere.)

So, without knowing how many applicants apply each year it's difficult to say, however I compiled the data on how many students are added each year. My thinking is:

  1. If you got into Peak to Peak, you do not care about any of this — congratulations.
  2. If you got waitlisted, you're probably very interested in understanding approximately how many kids get added.

My thinking here is that you can look at what grade you're applying for (eg: 9th grade) and understand how many students were added on average across the past two years, you can then kind of infer how close you are based on your waitlist number, many of these years have between 0 and 2 additions so yeah it's going to be tricky if you're waitlist number 4.

However other grades they add a fair amount, so if you're waitlist #5 and applying for Grade 9, it feels attainable?

Who knows! But I would have found seeing this data illuminating to know that, for example:

  1. 70-ish kids join Kinder
  2. 57-ish kids join at Grade 6
  3. 17-ish kids join at Grade 9.
  4. It's a little interesting to me that Grade 7 in 2025 got smaller, you'd think they would add someone from the waitlist ... maybe no one applied?
Grade 24 25 Avg additions
K 69 70 +69.5
1 72 70 +1.5
2 72 72 +1
3 78 77 +5.5
4 78 78 +0.5
5 78 78 0
6 136 135 +57.5
7 135 134 -1
8 135 134 0
9 154 149 +17
10 157 146 0
11 152 159 +4
12 136 145 -15
Total 1,452 1,447

note: years represent year end. sourced from NCES and PublicSchoolReview.com (same data set, the latter just had the previous year cached.